The Projection of Rainfall and the Effect on Rice (Oryza sativa L.) Productivity until 2045 Based on the Representative Concentration Pathways (RCP) Scenario

DOI: 10.22161/ijeab.106.7

Abstract:
Rainfall is one of the factors that causes a decrease in rice productivity. The study of rainfall and productivity projections in East Java province is important because it is one of the provinces that contributes the most to rice production in Indonesia. The research aims to study the projection of rainfall and rice productivity until 2045 using the Global Climate Model in the RCP 2.6 and RCP 8.5 scenarios in Malang and Banyuwangi regencies. The study was conducted by examining rainfall variability and its effect on rice productivity in Malang and Banyuwangi regencies in April–May 2024 using BMKG and NASA MERRA-2 rainfall data for 1993–2022, rice productivity for 2003–2022 in Malang and Banyuwangi regencies, and the global climate model until 2045 using the linear scaling method. The results showed that the MOHC-HadGEM2-ES model has a fairly good accuracy in projecting rainfall. Rainfall projections in RCP 2.6 and 8.5 scenarios show changes in rainfall patterns and intensity, with peak rainfall in April-June, where Malang and Banyuwangi regencies have monsoonal rainfall types; in those months the rainy season should have decreased or entered the dry season. The projection of rice productivity until 2045 in the RCP 2.6 scenario shows an increase in productivity in 2045 in Malang and Banyuwangi regencies of 8.02 tons ha-1 and 6.87 tons ha-1. The RCP 8.5 scenario shows a decrease in productivity in 2045 in Malang and Banyuwangi regencies of 7.83 tons ha-1 and 6.85 tons ha-1.

Keywords:
Climate Projection, Rice Productivity, RCP

Article Info:
Received: 15 Oct 2025; Received in revised form: 12 Nov 2025; Accepted: 19 Nov 2025; Available online: 26 Nov 2025

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